29 August 2020
While across the pont S&P-500, mainly driven by tech large caps, has been making fresh record highs, things in the UK are a bit humble at the moment. Both FTSE-100 and FTSE-350 indices saw a near 60% recovery from the March lows before turning sideways. Currently both the FTSE 100 & 350 indices are below their yearly and quarterly rolling averages, which indeed is not a very good sign. However, like always, there are opportunities hidden in the diverging sectors. Let's explore.
The following 10 sectors seem to have been outperforming the FTSE-350 over the last 12 and 3 month periods.
General Retailers
Industrial Engineering
Industrial Transport
Construction & Building Materials
Mining
Life Insurance
Chemicals
Food Producers
Support Services
General Industrials
Below we examine each of the above sector's performance relative to the FTSE-350 index.
General Retailers Sector Performance Relative to FTSE-350
The General Retailers sector's relative performance ratio has recently broken above a multi year high, confirming a long term bullish structure. While this sector seems to be set to outperform, the current overbought conditions warn of a near term dip, which should be deemed as a buying opportunity.
Industrial Engineering Sector Performance Relative to FTSE-350
This is a clear alpha. The Industrial Engineering Sector has been outperforming the broader market for over a decade. This sector's secular outperformance is indipendent of the Covid crises.
Industrial Transportation Sector Performance Relative to FTSE-350
While this sector has been outperforming the broader market since early April, the broader relative performance trend has been down for a number of years. Furthermore, the ratio is currently being capped by the last year's highs. Until the ratio clearly breaks above this hurdle, we drop this sector.
Construction Materials Sector Performance Relative to FTSE-350
Construction Materials Sector has been in a multi year cyclical phase of outperformance. The current up leg commenced in late 2018 and the longer term charts favour an extension of the current bull phase well into 2021.
Mining Sector Performance Relative to FTSE-350
Mining Sector has been another true star outperformaer. This sector bottomed out in early 2016 and since then it as been outperforming the FTSE-350 index. Currently the ratio is making fresh 7-1/2 year highs. Look for this sector to continue to outshine the broader market.
Life Insurance Sector Performance Relative to FTSE-350
Despite some recovery off the March lows, the Life Insurance Sector has been in a slightly downwards trend relative to the FTSE-350 index since early 2015. The life Insureance sector faces tough resistance ahead and risk that the sector will remain sideways - since so far there is no evidence of a bullish breakout in it's performance relative to the FTSE-350
Chemicals Sector Performance Relative to FTSE-350
This another sector worth considering. However, the the sector is surrently in an overbought territory relative to the FTSE-350 index. Look for any near term dips in the relative performance line to enter.
Food Producers Sector Performance Relative to FTSE-350
While the trend may not be intense, the Food Producers Sector has been somewhat outperforming the FTSE-350 index for the last 2 years. Fundamentally it is safe sector, so you may not see dramatic return but should the broader market turns South, expect this sector to show some resilience.
Support Services Sector Performance Relative to FTSE-350
The Support services sector has been a sold alpha outperformer. This sector has been in a secular uptrend relative to the broader market since 2008. With no signs of a reversal or trend exhaustion, this sector is an eye candy.
General Industrial Sector Performance Relative to FTSE-350
The General Industrial Sectors performance relative to the broader market is somewhat bullish. The recent 18 month high on the relative performance charts seems promising. Also, on the longer term charts, this sector seems to be poised to resume it's cyclical outperformance against the FTSE-350 Index.
Looking at constituents, it is clear that the Industrial Engineering sector is driven by a few heavy weight out-performers while majority of the constituents are lagging behind. The only ywo companies worth further exploring are Spirax-Sarco and IMI. Here we explore their share performance relative to the Industrial Engineering Sector
Spirax-Sarco Share Performance Relative to Industrial Engineering Sector
Spirax-Sarco sarco has been outperforming, or should we say 'driving', the Industrial Engineering sector consistantly since 2014. The business benefited from the Covid crises. Since April the relative performance line has been sideway but ti remains comfortable above it's yearly avaerage and the key support line
IMI Share Performance Relative to Industrial Engineering Sector
Relative to the Industrial Engineering Sector index, the IMI share price has been sideways for the last two years. While the ratio is currently near it's upper range ceiling, so far we do not see any significant breakout suggesting a continued phase of out-performance. Therefore we drop IMI for now
Once again most companies have underperformed relative to the sector index. The outperformers are few but they are heavy weights and and they have significantly outperformed the sector. The companies which have consistantly outperformed the Construction and Building Materials Sector are Eqtec, Kingspan Group, Breedon Group, CRH Plc and Compagnie de St-Gobain. Eqtec is a small cap penny share, so we drop it from our analysis, since we want to stick with stocks with medium to large cap. Below we examine performance of these three stocks relative to their sector index.
Kingspan Group Share Performance Relative to Construction and Building Materiel Sector
Kingspan Group has been outperforming it's sector for a number of years. The trend as been particularly strong since late last year. Following the recent consolidation phase, the the share price saw a breakout to new record highs against it's sector. Though currently a bit overbought relative to it's sector, Kingspan is not showing any signs of slowing down.
Breedon Group Share Performance Relative to Construction and Building Materiel Sector
While broadly in a flat sideways trend, Breedon Group saw a significant outperformance relative to its sector from late 2019 until late March. However, since then the rally has faltered and the stock is now in a directionless neutral territory. Therefore we drop Breedon Group for now.
CRH PLC Share Performance Relative to Construction and Building Materiel Sector
CRH Plc has been in a slightly upwards trend relative to the industry sector. The recent multi year highs on the chart paint a promising picture.
Compagnie de St-Gobain Share Performance Relative to Construction and Building Materiel Sector
Broadly the share has been underperforming its industry index for a number of years. Since March the ratio has bounced back from the record high. However, a decisive break above a multi year bear trendline and the 2019 highs is required to suggest that the relative performance ratio is seeing a primary trend change.
FTSE-350 Support Group has a large number of consttuents, so to keep things simple, I have included companies only with a market capitalization greater than £500 millions. The companies that have outperformed the Support Services Sector are Ferguson, Ashtead Group, Diploma, RWS Holdings, Electrocomponents and Intertek Group. Below we examine each of them against the Support sector index.
Ferguson PLC Share Performance Relative to Support Services Sector
Furguson Plc has been outperforming the Support services sector since 2009. The recade long up trend has been solidly entrenced in a channel. The recent 12 years high in the relative strength ratio suggests the trend is here to stay.
Ashtead Group Share Performance Relative to Support Services Sector
Ashtead Groups has been a star performer. The company has been beating the Support Sector Index consistantly. With the stock to sector ratio making fresh record highs, Ashtead Group remains one of the driving stocks in the Support Sector.
Diploma Plc Share Performance Relative to Support Services Sector
Diploma Plc remains a clear and presistant outperformer. The stock to sector index ratio has been making new record highs with a bull channel. The ratio line is currently consolidating after making fresh record highs and there is no sign of reversal evident on the charts
RWS Holdings Share Performance Relative to Support Services Sector
While RWS Holdings has been consistantly outperforming the broader Support Services Sector Index, the ratio has been a bit volatile due to some wild swings in the share price. Due to the extreme volatility, we drop RWS Holdings from our list of alpha stocks.
Electrocomponents Plc Share Performance Relative to Support Services Sector
Electrocomponents Plc share price relative to the FTSE-350 Support Services Sector has been flat and trendless at the moment. Therefore we drop it for now.
Intertek Share Performance Relative to Support Services Sector
Despite the sipke to new record highs amic Covid crises in March this year, the Intertek Group to Support Services sector index ratio has been pretty much flat since late 2017. In other words, the shre is tracking the sector index but is not outperforming at the moment. So we drop it for now.
In this brief and simple analysis we identified a few sectors that have been outperforming the FTSE-350 index and are expected to continue the trend. These sectors are
General Retailers
Industrial Engineering
Industrial Transport
Construction & Building Materials
Mining
Life Insurance
Chemicals
Food Producers
Support Services
General Industrials
We further dived into three of the above sectors and identified the stocks that have been outperfroming or driving these sectors high. We idesntified the following stocks that look particularly promising at this juncture
Spirax-Sarco
Kingspan Group
CRH PLC
Ferguson PLC
Ashtead Group
Diploma PLC
NOTE: This piece was only intended for educational and exploratrion purposes. For real investment decisions I am available to produce much more in depth and comprehensive research.
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